Research · Updated November 5, 2026
Everything behind the headline, with a numbered source for every figure. Where firms disagree, both numbers are shown. Figures marked as our sums are arithmetic on the cited public series.
01 · The ranking
Emerging Trends in Real Estate is published each fall by PwC and the Urban Land Institute. The 2027 edition, the 48th, was released on October 27, 2026 and draws on interviews and surveys of more than 1,700 real estate executives.[4][3]
The overall market ranking is a composite of three survey scores: investment prospects, development prospects and homebuilding prospects, each rated on a one to five scale. It measures what the industry expects, not what has already happened. PwC notes that scores near the top are tightly clustered, so the ranks are best read as direction rather than precise order.[1]
Nashville rose from sixth to second. Six of the top ten markets are in the South and Southeast.[1] The separate investment, development and homebuilding scores for each market are in the full report, available from ULI.[3]
02 · Projects
A $4.5 billion campus planned at about 1.3 million square feet of office across 23 buildings on roughly 82 acres, with 8,500 jobs targeted by 2031. Groundbreaking is planned for November 2026. Incentives include a $65 million state grant and up to $175 million in Metro property tax abatements. Metro notes Oracle has reduced its planned office footprint.[14][15]
About $2.2 billion, 75 percent complete at the end of March 2026, opening February 2027 with the first Titans season that fall. With Eastpoint Flats, the first East Bank project after Metro signed development documents in March 2026, it is pulling hotel, multifamily and infrastructure investment across the river.[17][16][2]
Metro has allocated $300 million, with estimates of $285 to $355 million across James Robertson Parkway, the Marine Drive and Cowan extension, utilities, and parks. East Bank Boulevard is still in right-of-way acquisition and is now phased.[15]
A local investor group bought the 47-acre former PSC Metals scrapyard just south of Nissan Stadium in August 2025 and plans a mixed-use, family-oriented riverfront neighborhood of homes, parks and greenways. Metro Planning Commission and Metro Council approved the rezoning unanimously in 2026, and the Planning Commission approved its Major and Collector Streets Plan on September 24, 2026. Gensler leads architecture and planning with OJB on landscape. A public realm master plan for its parks and streets is next. The Nashville Business Journal named the site purchase its 2026 Real Estate Deal of the Year.[27]
Nashville Yards is now a working mixed-use district, and developers have filed for another office tower. Starbucks leased all 250,000 square feet of office at Peabody Union for a hub of up to 2,000 jobs. The Nashville EDITION broke ground in the Gulch: 28 stories, 261 rooms and 84 residences, opening 2028.[2][19][20]
A record 26.7 million passengers in fiscal 2026, up 7.7 percent. The $3 billion New Horizon program adds a 16-gate Concourse A, expected July 2028, and construction runs into 2028.[18]
03 · Sectors, Q3 2026
Cushman & Wakefield has vacancy falling from its early 2025 peak, with almost nothing new underway, and calls Nashville one of the most supply-constrained office markets in the country. Newer downtown Class A space asks $60.67 against $38.11 for older stock.
Sources measure vacancy differently, so the range is shown. All agree the 2024 delivery wave (12,642 units) is behind the market and the pipeline is shrinking. Multifamily permits in 2026 are on pace for about 4,000 units, well below the five-year average.
Vacancy stays tight. Other brokers report a different absorption picture, so treat the direction of the pipeline as open.
Price growth has outrun income. A household needs about $138,000 a year to buy the median home, against a median income near $90,500. Data as of mid 2025.
04 · Permits
| Period | All units | Single-family | 2+ unit buildings |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19,954 | 14,312 | 5,642 |
| 2025 | 19,350 | 13,341 | 6,009 |
| Jan to Sep 2025 | 15,090 | 10,538 | 4,552 |
| Jan to Sep 2026 | 12,794 | 9,891 | 2,903 |
Through September, total permits are down about 15 percent from 2025. Single-family is down about 6 percent; units in buildings of two or more are down about 36 percent. Northmarq expects about 4,000 multifamily permits in 2026, well below the five-year average.[11]
05 · Population and jobs
Population growth by county, 2024 to 2025[7]
Percent change in one year. Hover or tab to a bar for the count.
Davidson adds the most people. Maury and Wilson grow the fastest.
The metro reached 2,197,416 people in 2025, up about 34,700 (1.6 percent) in one year.[6]
Unemployment was 2.8 percent in September 2026, with 1.20 million nonfarm jobs, up 1.0 percent over the year. Leisure and hospitality and information grew fastest. Construction employment was flat at 67,800.[8]
Health care is a $72 billion industry here with 372,000 jobs. A record 17.4 million visitors spent $11.6 billion.[2]
06 · Policy and cost
The Choose How You Move half-cent sales tax began in early 2025. Metro drew down an initial $104 million in October 2025, put 12 new buses on the road in January 2026, began sidewalk construction in February, and broke ground on its first complete streets this summer. Tennessee authorized dedicated transit lanes in April 2026. The program targets 86 miles of new sidewalk and smart signals at 592 intersections.[21]
The 2025 reappraisal raised median values 45 percent, and Metro's new rates came with what the Assessor describes as increases of 26 percent (urban district) and 39 percent (general district). Holding costs moved up for every owner.[22]
07 · Risks
Vacancy sits as high as 9.2 percent on some measures, rents are flat to slightly down, and the Franklin and Brentwood pipeline equals 13.7 percent of existing stock.[10][9]
Owning the median home takes 46 percent of median income. Demand is strong, but buyers are stretched.[24]
The reappraisal and higher rates raise taxes on land held for development.[22]
Craft labor is the binding constraint for most builders.[23]
INRIX puts Nashville at 65 hours lost per driver in 2025, 12th worst in the U.S.[25]
Oracle's smaller office footprint and a phased East Bank Boulevard mean the corridor will fill in over years, not seasons.[15]
08 · Sources
This brief summarizes published third-party research as of November 5, 2026. It is general market information, not investment advice.