Market brief · November 5, 2026
The Urban Land Institute and PwC moved Nashville from sixth to second, behind only Dallas/Fort Worth. Here is what is driving it, what is being built, and what the numbers say about developing here now.
Of U.S. markets for overall real estate prospects in Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2027. Up from 6th.
Why now
The report credits Nashville's rise to a maturing health care sector, a technology campus and a stadium investment that together are opening new development corridors.[1] The metro added about 34,700 people last year and unemployment sits at 2.8 percent.[6][8]
$72B
The anchor industry: 372,000 jobs, and a growing reason companies and capital choose Nashville.[2]
8,500
Oracle's planned $4.5 billion campus across the river, arguably the largest investment in Nashville's modern history.[14][2]
2027
A $2.2 billion stadium opening in February, pulling hotel, multifamily and infrastructure spending onto the East Bank.[17]
What is being built
A second urban core is forming on the East Bank, 550 acres between the Cumberland River and Interstates 24 and 65, about 130 of them owned by Metro.[26] The East Bank Development Authority keeps the district map and schedule. Downtown, the Gulch and the airport keep building.
A $4.5 billion campus planned at about 1.3 million square feet of office across 23 buildings on roughly 82 acres, with 8,500 jobs targeted by 2031. Groundbreaking is planned for November 2026. Incentives include a $65 million state grant and up to $175 million in Metro property tax abatements. Metro notes Oracle has reduced its planned office footprint.[14][15]
About $2.2 billion, 75 percent complete at the end of March 2026, opening February 2027 with the first Titans season that fall. With Eastpoint Flats, the first East Bank project after Metro signed development documents in March 2026, it is pulling hotel, multifamily and infrastructure investment across the river.[17][16][2]
Metro has allocated $300 million, with estimates of $285 to $355 million across James Robertson Parkway, the Marine Drive and Cowan extension, utilities, and parks. East Bank Boulevard is still in right-of-way acquisition and is now phased.[15]
A local investor group bought the 47-acre former PSC Metals scrapyard just south of Nissan Stadium in August 2025 and plans a mixed-use, family-oriented riverfront neighborhood of homes, parks and greenways. Metro Planning Commission and Metro Council approved the rezoning unanimously in 2026, and the Planning Commission approved its Major and Collector Streets Plan on September 24, 2026. Gensler leads architecture and planning with OJB on landscape. A public realm master plan for its parks and streets is next. The Nashville Business Journal named the site purchase its 2026 Real Estate Deal of the Year.[27]
Nashville Yards is now a working mixed-use district, and developers have filed for another office tower. Starbucks leased all 250,000 square feet of office at Peabody Union for a hub of up to 2,000 jobs. The Nashville EDITION broke ground in the Gulch: 28 stories, 261 rooms and 84 residences, opening 2028.[2][19][20]
A record 26.7 million passengers in fiscal 2026, up 7.7 percent. The $3 billion New Horizon program adds a 16-gate Concourse A, expected July 2028, and construction runs into 2028.[18]
The data, Q3 2026
Office supply has nearly stopped, apartments are working through the last delivery wave, and growth is moving out to the ring counties. Where sources disagree, we show the range.
Cushman & Wakefield has vacancy falling from its early 2025 peak, with almost nothing new underway, and calls Nashville one of the most supply-constrained office markets in the country. Newer downtown Class A space asks $60.67 against $38.11 for older stock.
Sources measure vacancy differently, so the range is shown. All agree the 2024 delivery wave (12,642 units) is behind the market and the pipeline is shrinking. Multifamily permits in 2026 are on pace for about 4,000 units, well below the five-year average.
Vacancy stays tight. Other brokers report a different absorption picture, so treat the direction of the pipeline as open.
Price growth has outrun income. A household needs about $138,000 a year to buy the median home, against a median income near $90,500. Data as of mid 2025.
Population growth by county, 2024 to 2025[7]
Percent change in one year. Hover or tab to a bar for the count.
Davidson adds the most people. Maury and Wilson grow the fastest.
Building permits, Nashville metro[5]
Census data. Totals are our sums of the monthly series.
12,794
Homes permitted, Jan to Sep 2026
-15%
Versus the same months of 2025
-6%
Single-family permits, year to date
-36%
Units in 2+ unit buildings, year to date
Single-family is holding. Multifamily is pulling back hard, which sets up the next supply gap. Full table
Risks
The ranking measures industry sentiment. These are the things that still decide whether a project pencils.
Vacancy sits as high as 9.2 percent on some measures, rents are flat to slightly down, and the Franklin and Brentwood pipeline equals 13.7 percent of existing stock.[10][9]
Owning the median home takes 46 percent of median income. Demand is strong, but buyers are stretched.[24]
The reappraisal and higher rates raise taxes on land held for development.[22]
Craft labor is the binding constraint for most builders.[23]
INRIX puts Nashville at 65 hours lost per driver in 2025, 12th worst in the U.S.[25]
Oracle's smaller office footprint and a phased East Bank Boulevard mean the corridor will fill in over years, not seasons.[15]
Moving people
Nashville drivers lost 65 hours each to traffic in 2025[25], and Choose How You Move is now adding sidewalks, signals and buses[21]. The new towers, the stadium and the East Bank also need people who can get to them. MobileFlow is a Nashville company that builds software for that: helping people plan trips together, and showing the organizations that fund those trips which ones happened.
For people and groups
A map-native group messenger for real-life plans. Who is in, where to meet, when to leave and how to get there stay in one chat, and SafeRide helps get people home. hytch.org
For artists, promoters and venues
Shows who actually showed up and who brought them, so the people filling Nashville's rooms can see what worked. tally.vip
For programs that fund outcomes
The verified outcomes engine behind Hytch and Tally. A program writes its rules, for example a shared trip downtown in the morning peak, and Arcus is designed to check each trip against them, approve or deny it with a reason, and keep the record. arcusoutcomes.com
Agencies spend on carpool and transit incentives, commuter programs and safe rides home. MobileFlow is built so a program pays only for trips that meet its rules, with every yes and no explained and reports kept in aggregate.
Some cities require new buildings to reduce driving and report on it every year. Hytch helps residents and tenants share trips, and Arcus is designed to produce the records those reports need.
Event nights and daily commutes load the same streets. Venues, employers and sponsors can fund shared trips, real visits and rides home, and pay for checked results.
Build here
Whether you are planning a home, a development or a build schedule of your own, these are the people behind this research.
Residential and commercial construction arm
Builds custom homes, spec residences and commercial projects from the ground up in Brentwood, Franklin and Nashville. A principal reviews every inquiry and replies directly.
Inquire with Two FourBoutique development firm
A boutique development firm. Trivium develops its own estates, family compounds and architecturally driven homes in Nashville, Franklin, Leipers Fork and Williamson County, each planned, designed and delivered as a finished project.
Building a custom home? See Two Four Construction & Development.
Talk to TriviumConstruction platform
Software for residential and light commercial builders. BYLD puts the schedule, budget, change orders, punch lists, plans and the field on one set of numbers. Built for builders, by builders, in Nashville.
See BYLDBYLD is built inside Trivium Development, the founders' building company, and Trivium's projects run on BYLD.